News and Political Commentary

Predicting The Future

by Billy Roper

As a man of faith, my belief is that God has promised ultimate victory to His people. I also believe that we (Whites) are His people. However, despite 2,000 years of trying, nobody has precisely and definitely interpreted Biblical prophecy as to exactly how that will come about. Nor, I think, should we worry too much about trying. After all, that’s part of what faith is all about. We are, at best, like soldiers responsible for our own relatively small and inconsequential sector of the battlefield, and our own specific duties in it. We leave it up to our great General above to prosecute the grand strategy of the war.

Looking directly forward in our specific sector, 21st century North America, was the goal of my nonfiction book ‘The Balk’, a demographic study of the coming breakup of America. Many people find my vision of balkanization and the rise of ethnostates compelling. A new published review will be forthcoming soon by Tom Purcell on Writer Beat which I will try to remember to post a link to, and here is a new 5 out of 5 star reader’s review just posted on Amazon.

One thing is uncertain: we all can see the polarization and division rising around us, at the same time that international tensions offer several flashpoints, such as North Korea and Syria, which might lead to a war which could destabilize the federal government, forcing it to abdicate its role and creating the kind of vacuum in power which nature abhors. This leads us into a brief essay which a contributor sent to me last night about the current international uncertainties, and how in the past similar situations have given rise to snowball effects which rolled out of control:

It’s almost hard to believe over 100 years later, but many leaders at the time thought World War I would be over quickly. Few, if any, would have predicted a four-year battle of attrition resulting in tens of millions of lost lives.

This is not some distant and dull historical anecdote. The first World War was a disaster. It shattered the old world in Europe and paved the way for Stalin, Hitler, and, in 1939, the second World War. Historians today often call 1914-45 a single crisis spanning 31 years. When it was over, somewhere approaching 100 million people were dead. The wars united modern science and the horrors of the Middle Ages. We are still feeling the effects today.

There have been comparable catastrophes in human history, such as the Black Death bubonic plague of 1348-49, which killed a third of the people in Europe. But those of 1914-1945 have one terrible distinction: Human beings inflicted disaster upon themselves. This was no earthquake, flood, or disease. It was a choice — or a series of choices.

Leaders on all sides did not choose the war they ended up fighting. This is not a wartime phenomenon unique to the leaders of the era — and it’s a lesson which perhaps hasn’t been fully learned.

It’s the repeated story, and you wonder why it takes people so much effort to learn it: that once you unleash large-scale violence, i.e. make war, it’s almost impossible to predict the course of events thereafter.

Policymakers, in general, exaggerate their own capacity to control historical events.

The two most recent conflicts the United States engaged in — Afghanistan, which is still winding down, and Iraq — are both cases of the unpredictability of war.

What is the takeaway from a lesson that emphasizes unpredictability? We’re simply not able to know with precision what the consequences of our actions are.  We must realize that using force is a combustible event.

Happy Fourth of July!

 

Remember, we’re all in this together,

Derek Paulson

 

Please follow and like us:
error3987

Leave a Reply

Theme by Anders Norén

error

Enjoy this blog? Please spread the word :)