The logic of war

The United States must come to a decision on whether it can live in that world where it can be threatened by North Korean nuclear weapons and missile programs.

If the US were to attack, it would not just hit weapon systems. The aim would be to have regime change and greater stability that replaces it.

For Kim Jong-Un looking at that outcome, it appears that he believes the United States is bluffing. North Korea is looking at the case in Syria a few years ago where a “red line” was given but no action was taken.

That’s why the logic of war is important. Kim Jong-Un can operate with a logic of his own. His logic pushes him away from verifiable cessation of the arms testing and into some version of normalization with relief of sanctions. It moves him away from diplomatic channels and in the direction of pushing his missile programs as far as he can.

That’s where a breakout happens. It is a dash for the finish line where a country aims for an objective without even pretending it is operating with peaceful purposes. Actions are taken regardless of negotiations or critical pressure.

In a breakout, there is an increase in the probability of attack but it drastically decreases the decision-making time and the window in which your enemy, in Kim Jong-Un’s perspective the United States, can attack you. That’s where the US is right now. He is in breakout mode. He’s testing his missiles at rapid pace. He’s testing his weapons and putting all the pieces together.

This decision has forced the United States to think hard about war and is providing very little time to act. It could be a matter of months before North Korea has this capability.

The North Korean regime is also aiming to launch a missile from a submarine. The capacity that they have is nothing like the U.S Trident submarines, or a more sophisticated system, but they do have a submarine. The action is going to be a shock to the stock market. It’s going to be a huge wake up call.

The worst-case scenario is facing a submarine that can be maneuvered in the Pacific Ocean. While it might be able to be tracked, it allows for a threat to be closer to US territory and the missile range to be greatly diminished.

When this happens, that’s going to change the equation enormously. That’s going to be another shock to the stock market and add to more vulnerability there.

The United States then has two choices. It can acquiesce, allowing a nuclear armed North Korea to exist.

That would cause Japan and South Korea to weaponize nuclear technology which is unstable and will increase the probabilities of war.

The second option is the US will not acquiesce in this, and will go to war to put a stop it. The first Korean War fighting began in June 1950 and lasted until July 1953. There was no peace treaty but an agreement in an armistice where shooting stopped. The war was never technically over. It is a fight that could restart at any time.

The Whole Truth And Nothing But The Truth,

Jonathan Chambers

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