‘When’ will the coming civil war begin?

By Billy Roper, ShieldWall Network Coordinator

Pictured: Citizens waiting in line to gather water during the Siege of Sarajevo, 1992

     People are always asking me, after they have read my books ‘Ethnostate’ or the ‘Hasten The Day’ trilogy, when the balkanization of America is going to happen. Especially over the last couple of years as the Balk Right, those within the White Nationalist movement who see the breakup of the United States into smaller, more homogeneous ethnostates as a foregone conclusion, has grown to encompass most of us on the hard right, it has in fact become the one question which I am asked most often. I’ll try to tackle the thorny answer in detail now, but please be patient, since when I attempt to be brief I sometimes become obscure, and my readers deserve a thorough explanation of what I believe we should be watching out for as signs that it’s near, and why.

     Like the rest of my friends in The ShieldWall Network, our White Nationalist prepper’s collective, who understand that the coming civil war is now grimly inevitable, I am sadly without a crystal ball even with which to see the future through a glass darkly. And, one of the downsides of being a prophet, along with the Cassandra effect of people remaining in denial of uncomfortable realities, is when they want you to get specific.

     The Book of Revelations, the last book in the Christian New Testament, for example, has been interpreted and reinterpreted for thousands of years in attempts to apply solid dates to the highly anticipated and murkily described events within its pages.  In the year of our Lord 999 AD, many believers gave all of their wealth and property away and stood in the streets on New Year’s Eve awaiting Christ’s return. For the first 1,800 years of Christendom, the faithful took seriously the part in the Lord’s Prayer which says ‘Thy kingdom, come, thy will be done, on Earth as it is in Heaven’, and expected the establishment of Christ’s rule here, rather than the more recent fable of a rapture. Still, all they got for their troubles was frostbite.

     Indeed, the Pastor of the church wherein I was saved as a young boy predicted that based on then-current events, he didn’t expect the world to stand until the end of the decade. That was 1978. Later, prophets looked at blood moons and the fall of the Soviet Union and most importantly, the establishment of the state of Israel, for clues to the date of the end times. In calculating that the promised generation not passing from the date of Israel’s statehood in 1948 must be less than the Biblical measurement of the allotted threescore and ten, the last year passed in disappointment for some. Along the way, they not only forgot who they are, and who those who call themselves Jews are, they also forgot the part about Jesus coming like a thief in the night, and no man knowing the day or the hour.

     History is full of events, like the Berlin Wall coming down and the collapse of the Soviet Union, which noone correctly foresaw, but in hindsight as people Monday morning quarterbacked it, were obviously unavoidable. The same will someday be said about the breakup of America. Let me tell you what I do know.

     This is not 1776, and we will not overthrow the government through revolution, with or without the help of foreign friends as we did with French help then, or might with Russian assistance, now.  Nor is it 1933, when the perfectly skilled orator, propagandist, leader, optics, organization, or sequence of events will allow us to vote our way into power and regain control over our destiny as a people. Sorry, lever-pullers. Instead, it’s 1991 again, and the beginning of the Yugoslavian Civil War which lasted a decade.

     First, when ethnic tensions began to pull the multiethnic country of Yugoslavia apart, the cultural and linguistic and religious and ethnic differences leading them to disparate goals and desires for secession were stymied by the Federal Yugoslav Army, which sought to hold the nation together by force. Think of them as the Civic Nationalists, Trump and his MAGA supporters, as it were. Over time, the majority Serbian military elements became dominant in the armed forces to the point where what they were calling patriotism was more about Serbian nationalism than Yugoslavian unity. This led to other Yugoslavian ethnicities, such as the Slovenes, Croats, Bosnians, Macedonians, and Kosovar Albanians, abandoning both the armed forces through defection as well as ceasing to enforce national laws related to immigration and trade. Borders began to be redrawn based on the majority ethnicity of a given area, rather than artificial political boundaries. Real calls for secession began. So did ethnic cleansing of smaller, surrounded minority enclaves. But the first events of the war were marked by the voluntary decisions of private individuals within Yugoslavia to vote with their feet in large scale population shifts as they moved to regions of the country where their own ethnicity was the decided majority. This sorting out of diverse regions into more homogeneous segregated population pools left behind the more irredeemably mixed cities such as Sarajevo, which would become the most contested during the conflict which was to come.  That process took roughly from 1990 to 1994, when the United Nations took notice, but in reality it had begun years earlier.  

     I wrote extensively, documented with census data and other shifting demographic evidence, about how this process has been already taking place here in the United States, in ‘The Balk’. Blacks are moving from the cities of the Midwest and the Northeast back to the deep south in large numbers, and Whites there are responding by moving out of the deep south for the upper south, while the browning of the southwest and California is causing regional White flight from that entire region. Most areas are not becoming more diverse, on the contrary, they are becoming more homogeneous. So, that’s the point we’re at in the timeline, right now.

     For the next five years, as tensions increased, conflict became more open, first politically, then physically. The violence began where different ethnic groups rubbed up against each other, unsurprisingly, and it will happen that way here, too. Towns and cities across Yugoslavia which were not completely  dominated by one of the contending factions or another were blasted and burned into rubble, and that rubble fought over until it was uninhabitable. Mass graves were filled, as in Srebrenica. People were starved in concentration camps like Trnopolje and Manjaca. Entire regions were depopulated and replaced demographically. Croats drove Serbians out of Croatian areas, and Serbians drove Croats and Bosnians out of Serb controlled territory. And for those whose main objection to the coming civil war in America is that it would invite foreign intervention by another power, the United States and NATO bombed Serbian forces extensively in 1999 in order to help the other side, to little avail. Even NATO troops being put on the ground under the auspices of the United Nations, in the meantime, had succeeded only in establishing small safe zones called “United Nations Protected Areas”, and had the primary effect of cementing the separation of the former peoples of Yugoslavia into independent ethnostates.  In other words, the United Nations focused its efforts on protecting one group and its territory from another ethnic group, rather than reuniting the former nation.  

     The fighting continued for two more years, and now each ethnicity has its own homogeneous independent ethnostate.  This did not happen in ancient history, it happened while I was in college. In fact, I leafleted and protested against the U.S. involvement in the war, at the time. But the people who survived this conflict are still very much alive, and the lessons which they learned from it should be cautionary tales to the rest of us about what is coming. If the United Nations could not restore peace in a country smaller than Texas and with much less history of racial animosity and genuine differences than the populations of the currently United States have, how could the same thing on a much larger scale here be stopped by anyone externally? Quite simply, it could not, and will not.  

     The timing, then, of the balkanization of America, a term which actually comes from the Balkans area of the former Yugoslavia and which has become the favored term to describe the impending civil war and breakup of the United States, is based on crisis trigger events which are largely outside of our control. A sharp economic downturn such as a collapse of the credit bubble or the housing market could do it. So could an impeachment, assassination, or political actions such as the passing of hate speech laws or gun confiscation measures.  Some favor as a potential cause an external war which could destabilize the country, or terrorist actions or an EMP attack, or simply the next set of racial protests spreading into many cities simultaneously and clashes between protesters and citizens erupting into racial civil war. Thomas Chittum, a veteran of both the Vietnam and Yugoslavian civil wars, predicted in his important book ‘Civil War Two’ that it would not be Whites who begin the war, but rather more probably Hispanic Nationalists seeking La Reconquista de Aztlan. That would most closely follow the Yugoslav model.

     As for myself, I believe that a national government can allow its own extinction by abdicating the will to exercise its actual and legitimate remaining power, and refusing to exercise it. For example, a Federal government which fears to defend its own borders, or enforce its own laws, whether they be in regard to marijuana usage or immigration, has lost the will to live at the expense of the votes of rapidly growing minorities. When those ethnic minorities become the majority in any given area, the interests and government of that area diverges from the interests of the rest of the country as a whole, and certainly conflicts with the interests of the national government. A current case which I have cited is the Governor of New Mexico, which now is 46% Hispanic and only 41% White, refusing to defend the state’s border with Mexico, and successfully defying the Federal government to defend it. In a state vs. Federal confrontation in which Trump has just blinked, the Democratic governor ordered all National Guard troops which the President had sent to protect the border area to leave. This included troops from several other states. Some of the National Guard troops were immediately ordered by their state governors to redeploy to Texas, such as the elements from Arkansas, who were invited by the governor of the Lone Star state to help them defend the border there.

     Once again, this gives us proof that it does not matter whether immigrants are legal or illegal, what matters is their tribal loyalties, and an overwhelming majority of Hispanics are not going to close the door behind them to keep out their familia.  Civic Nationalism chokes at this point, and fails. Even in smaller cases, such as in Nogales, Arizona, where the Mayor of the Hispanic city has called on the Federal government to take down the border fence there, Hispanic regions are successfully defying the sovereignty of the Federal government, which is backing down in every case, and allowing the national border to be erased. The southwest is becoming a de facto part of Mexico. At some point, their autonomy will become a formality. My bet is that as polarization and division deepens and widens the fissures already growing in the United States, it will not happen peacefully.       

     Will the Federal government then suddenly muster the will to tell African Americans who want a black homeland in the southeastern states that they cannot have it, when blacks can legitimately claim at least from their perspective that due to centuries of slavery and Jim Crow laws and the endemic, systematic and institutional racism of the United States, they deserve one at least as much if not more than Hispanics do? I doubt it, nor do I think that the heavily racially integrated U.S. military is equal to the task of doing the job, even if they were so ordered. The military will be crippled at that stage, just as the Yugoslav military was, by desertions and defections and mutinies and the fraggings of officers. Entire units would have to be locked down on base and racially segregated before they could be used to maintain Civic Nationalist order, or only sent to quell disorder in regions where the military units involved have minimal coethnics with the rebels. Either tactic would undermine the very purpose of Civic Nationalist unity, and add fuel to the fire of dissolution. 

     So, to answer the question of ‘when’, much of the time frame depends on the Presidential election next year, 2020. If a truly triggering left wing radical is elected, polarization will be accelerated, since Republicans act as steam pressure release valves to postpone the inevitable. That’s their function.   

     Perhaps the most clear and concise answer to the question is another question in turn: “When do you want it to?”

     Do you think it’s better to re-elect Trump, or another “conservative”, and kick the can down the road longer while the White percentage of the population grows smaller and smaller? Would you prefer to be able to keep a lid on things until you get old and die, and pass it off to your children to worry about, so they can fight the war after you’re gone?

Or, would you rather see the whole shithouse go ahead and go up in flames, so we can have White ethnostates and start over clean?  Tell the truth. YOU tell ME the answer to ‘when’.

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